One honest bearing instead of a chaos of opinions: what is really happening with the dollar, credit and the economy.
Eight filters, Fed series, history by day since 1990 and a breakdown of any day — 12 more cards for your dashboard. Subscription with cancel anytime in Google Play; the first 30 days everything is open, no card needed.
We ran Isoba through every working day since 1990 as if it were live: each day uses only data already published by then, and a check recomputes everything on data cut at 31 December 2019 — every earlier day must match exactly. In 16 crises since 1990 the crisis meter rose in advance 4 times, was already high in the same wave 3 times, rose at the moment 4 times, late once and missed 4 short shocks without credit stress (2010, 2011, 2015, the 2025 tariffs). Outside crises it showed “tension” on 12% of days. Recession risk was high 17, 12 and 6 months before the 2001, 2008 and 2020 recessions, with a false alarm in 2023–2024. The full table is in the app, screen “Tested on history”. The method was fixed on 16 October 2026; from that day the daily record below is the forward test.
Isoba is also an MCP server: https://isoba.lokio.org/mcp (Streamable HTTP, no sign-in). Ask Claude, Cursor or another assistant about the dollar, crisis and recession risk — it answers with today’s Isoba numbers. How to connect. Not investment advice.
Every day after the US close the result is saved as a public, dated record in git: history of isoba/data.json. It cannot be changed after the fact. Not investment advice.